"DIAL" - A System for Modeling Multidimensional Demographic Processes

Multistate mathematical demography, much of the development of which took place in IIASA, has proven its usefulness in a broad range of applications including the analysis of migration, marriage, fertility, working life and household dynamics. Among other things the method makes possible the calculation of population projections which are disaggregated by region (marital status, parity, occupation, etc.). This paper serves as a user's guide to a new microcomputer program which greatly facilitates the use of the multistate projection mathematics. A user with access to the appropriate data and modest skills with a computer can explore the future path of a population under a variety of assumptions about the direction of change in key variables. Graphical displays of results, and interactive updating of assumptions, also contribute to the usefulness of the system. The program described here has already been installed and used in a number of research institutes in several countries